Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims (4-Week Moving Average) thru Week Ending April 11, 2015 – Easy Trends
In this article, I’ll do an “Easy Trends” analysis of the initial weekly unemployment claims data. “Easy Trends” is a place where I’ll analyze the recent trend for an indicator and discuss whether it is currently going up, down or neither. You can read the basics of my methodology on the FAQ page.
NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis. Please visit my latest unemployment claims trend analysis for more info.
Quick ‘n Easy
By tracking the number of people who are filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week, we get a quick insight into the latest status of the economy’s health. Fewer claims equals more jobs, which equals more income, which usually equals more consumer spending (70% of the economy!) that supports company profits, which in turn can lead to more hiring.
Quick Version of Easy Trends Analysis
For the Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims series, I will be doing only a brief update as long as the level of claims is super low (below 300,000) or just low (below 350,000) but without a confirmed upward trend (which is undesirable of course). I will only call out a few specific statistics that I like to track. I’ll be tracking the trends, but it takes a lot of time to do the post, so I won’t do a post with the full analysis unless there is any cause for concern. Bottom Line: If you’re seeing my “quick version” of this analysis – don’t be worried about weekly jobless claims!
NOTE: The last time I did a full update was for the week ending March 7, 2015
4-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims: 282,750 (Good – we want this number to be below 350,000)
4-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims as a percent of the total size of the nation’s workforce: 0.18 percent (Good)
Current Trend: Confirmed downward trend of about 8,250 fewer claims per week, but latest reading too high to include. (Good)