Browsing Posts published in February, 2011

Risk: How do we measure it?

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With all the recent events in the Middle East, a lot of investors have been spooked.  The results in the stock market have been quite significant.  The Wilshire 5000 Index, which is a pretty comprehensive measure of the total stock market, is down around 3% over the last two trading days.  We haven’t seen a drop like that in many months.  It seems pretty obvious that investors are finding the market a bit too risky right now, with the turmoil in the Middle East a potential threat to create skyrocketing oil and gas prices, which would put a damper on the consumer’s ability to spend money and support the economy.  But are people really turning their back on risky investments right now?

The old saying, “No risk, no reward” holds very true in general.  Riskier investments tend to pay off more in the long run.  In good times, investors are more likely to put their money in riskier investments, thus the general appetite for risk is higher.  Of course, the opposite is true in tough times like the ones we are in right now.  Fortunately, there are a few ways of measuring investors’ appetite for risk. continue reading…

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I am slowly building my dashboard of economic indicators that I most regularly follow.  For each, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative.  Generally, a “positive” rating is consistent with economic growth that is close to or better than average, enough to sustain good job growth.  Neutral would imply slow or no economic growth but not a recession or worse.  Negative would be indicative of a slowdown or recession.

Employment Trends Index (link here)

From the actual description:

This new leading index for employment is highly correlated with employment, consistently provides leads before turning points in employment, and does not provide false
signals.

There are many indicators out there that describe what is going on with jobs (the labor market).  Eight of these have proven to be leading indicators for where employment is headed.  That is, when they improve, the general employment picture improves a bit later.  When these indicators get worse, employment gets worse a little down the road.  These eight indicators are combined into one index value for the Employment Trends Index (ETI) and published monthly by The Conference Board after each jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Latest Reading: 100.5 on Feb 7, 2011.  This represents the outlook for the labor market in January and is 0.2 points higher than the previous reading for December.  It is 7% higher than it was a year before.  According to one of the economists at The Conference Board, the result indicates that “employment growth is poised to accelerate.”

Economic Indicator Roundup (February 16, 2011) continue reading…

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