Economic Indicators Roundup (April 16, 2012)
Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow. For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications. For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative. For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one’s section how I decide which rating to give it. At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand. It’s not scientifically rigorous or anything.
- Positive - indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
- Neutral - indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
- Negative - indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.
(NOTE: For a “Quick ‘n Easy” read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my “Easy Take” summary at the end. You can review any charts/graphs afterward. I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I’m trying to making them easy …)
|Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open)||Current Rating (change)|
|ADS Business Conditions Index||Neutral|
|Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index||Neutral
|Daily Consumer Leading Indicators||Negative (downgrade)|
|Citigroup Economic Surprise Index||Neutral|
|USA Today / IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index||Neutral|
|Employment Trends Index||Neutral|
|Chicago Fed National Activity Index||Positive|
|Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index||Positive|
Quick ‘n Easy
A combination of several key indicators of business conditions suggests, with low confidence, that current conditions are worse than average (-0.248), historically speaking. The index suggests that economic activity fell from a peak in late fourth quarter 2011 to about its current levels in late February. Before that, it had been at or above average since early October 2011. The most recent date for which there is data for all components of the index is end of fourth quarter 2011, when conditions were above average (+0.345).
Easy Description: Combines several indicators together to describe current business conditions. A value above zero means that conditions are better than average, but below zero means worse than average.
Latest Reading: Minus (-) 0.248 for Apr 7, but this only includes the weekly unemployment figures and maybe one other indicator. This level is barely better than the revised number for a week ago (-0.258). The most recent date for which there is data for all components of the index is end of fourth quarter 2011, when conditions were above average (+0.345).
Implications: Recent data has confirmed a strong second half of the 4th quarter of 2011, but newer data shows a steady decline from just before the start of 2012. It appears likely that the rate of growth has slowed in the 1st quarter of 2012. Once the employment report was released for March, this index dropped considerably, and it has now been sitting slightly below the zero (average) line since about Feb 6.
Additional Info: This index provides confident readings about the past when all of the indicators have been collected (everything to the left of the left-most vertical line). The readings in between the two vertical lines are somewhat less confident because they include some, but not all, of the indicators. And the latest reading always falls to the right of the right-most vertical line and includes only a couple of indicators.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use the very latest reading and rate anything between zero and minus (-) 1.00 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.
Economic Indicator: Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index | NEUTRAL
Easy Intro to Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: Apr 13, 2012
Quick ‘n Easy
After a slow rise upward for several months, the index hit a temporary high around March 19 and has been slowly declining and is now in danger of nearing the “negative” zone if it drops much more. At this moment, it would seem that financial stress is not a significant drag on economic prospects, but danger is lurking nearby.
Easy Description: Monitors the level of stress in the U.S. financial markets. Zero is normal, above zero is good and below zero is bad.
Latest Reading: Minus (-) 0.25 (versus a reading of -0.03 last week)
Implications: The index has been in the “neutral” zone since January 20. Unfortunately, we’ve seen a steady decline since a temporary high of +0.24 on March 19. Last week was one of the worst we’ve had in some time as yields on Spanish government bonds rose considerably. This means the interest rates that investors are “charging” the Spanish government when they loan that government their money is going up – a sign that they feel Spain is at risk of not paying that money back. However, the bottom line is that perceived risk in the financial system is not significantly hindering the economy right now, but it is very easy to see how this could become a major problem with just a little more deterioration in the financial markets.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will rate anything between 0.50 and minus (-) 0.50 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.
Economic Indicator: Daily Consumer Leading Indicators (Consumer Metrics Institute) | NEGATIVE (downgrade)
Easy Intro to Daily Consumer Leading Indicators | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: Apr 13, 2012
Quick ‘n Easy
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of our economy, so an indication of what this spending looks like down the road is key in predicting growth rates. The level of interest from consumers in making discretionary (non-essential) purchases in the near term, as captured by the Consumer Metrics Institute on April 13, was about 13% below a fairly normal level seen in the year 2005.
Easy Description: Very unique indicator that captures the level of consumer interest in purchasing discretionary (non-essential) items. It measures activities that occur well in advance of the purchase, so that makes it a true leading indicator. The indicator that I choose to focus on is called the “Absolute Demand Index.” It tracks where demand is compared to levels in 2005, a fairly normal level. So, if the Absolute Demand Index level is 90, it means the level of consumer interest in purchasing discretionary items is 90% of what it was in 2005. The index is expressed in a daily form (see chart to right) and a monthly form (see chart below.)
Latest Reading: Absolute Demand Index daily reading is approximately 87 for April 13, which means preparations for consumer discretionary purchases is 13% lower than the fairly normal levels seen back in 2005.
Implications: Unfortunately, as I’d predicted over a month ago, the daily levels declined quite a bit through March. It was clear that this would happen given the fact that calculations are being made based on where the index was exactly a year prior, and the monthly chart clearly shows that the index was falling during January thru May of 2011.
The good news is that June thru September period in 2011 saw a significantly rapid improvement, so we should expect the index to do well again starting around June if the year-over-year improvement stays about the same.
The consumer needs to have money to spend on discretionary items. That money generally comes from jobs. And it looks like we’re seeing more jobs and hiring for now. But watch for those statistics on disposable income levels to really get a feel for whether consumers have money to spend. After a nice jump in December 2011, the readings for January and February 2012 wiped out those gains, so that may have contributed to the decline we recently saw in consumer discretionary purchase preparations. Let’s see how things look for the next several months.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, if the daily Absolute Demand Index is 98 or higher, I will rate that “positive” – between 90 and 98 will be “neutral” – below 90 will be “negative.”
Quick ‘n Easy
An index that measures whether reports on economic data are generally coming in above, at or below expectations suggests that we are getting reports that are slightly above expectations. This does not necessarily mean the reports are good or bad – just slightly above expectations. There has been a downward trend for months, however, which means we could hit “negative” territory very soon.
Easy Description: Daily measure of whether, on balance, U.S. economic reports have been better than (positive values), worse than (negative values) or same as (zero) what economists have expected. For the importance of this, see my post about expectations versus actual results. Also, check out my article on the relationship between the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index turning positive and the effects on the stock market.
Latest Reading: +14.70 on Apr 13, 2012 (versus +6.90 on Apr 5)
Implications: In mid-March, this index crossed down into “neutral” territory for the first time since Nov 10, 2011, and it was poised to drop below the zero mark last week for the first time since Oct 13, 2011. But there was an unexpected bump up, which has always been temporary when it’s happened in the last few months.
Keep in mind what is basically happening, as it is usually a cycle. Expectations have been raised as a result of good data, and now it is more likely that data will disappoint. It doesn’t actually mean the data is getting worse. Hopefully, the index won’t go way below zero as it often has in the past during this kind of cycle.
Remember that economic reports aren’t necessarily leading indicators, so where we are headed could be somewhere better (or worse).
Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will give this indicator a rating as follows: 100 to 34 is “positive”; between 34 and -34 is “neutral”; -100 to -34 is “negative.”
Economic Indicator: USA Today / IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index | NEUTRAL
Easy Intro to USA Today / IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: February 2012
Quick ‘n Easy
A combination of indicators that predict the growth rate of the economy for the next several months suggests that the U.S. economy will grow at a slower-than-average pace through July 2012. But at least it’s slow growth instead of shrinking.
Easy Description: Forecast of the 6-month annualized Real GDP growth rate for the next several months. Based on an index of 11 leading indicators, each of which generally predicts future changes in economic growth.
Latest Reading: Forecasting a peak of 2.5% for March/April 2012, and each month’s forecast is slightly lower from there, eventually reaching a July 2012 forecast of 2.1%
Implications: These numbers continue to suggest that growth should be slow compared to historical averages, which removes some of the cushion that would protect us against a shock to the system (like what’s happening in Europe.) These growth rates will make it tough for the economy to produce too many jobs above and beyond the needs of the growing workforce population.
Note that some of this forecast depends upon interest rate spreads (the difference in interest rates on short-term bonds versus long-term bonds, for example). Those kinds of spreads have been artificially affected by the Federal Reserve’s interventions that are intended to keep interest rates low. Their usefulness as tools for forecasting economic growth are lower as a result. What I’m saying is that this forecast may be slightly too optimistic.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, if the average growth rate of the forecast months is 3 percent or higher, I will rate that “positive” – between 0 and 3 percent is “neutral” – below zero will be “negative.”
Quick ‘n Easy
A combination of indicators related to the jobs market through March 2012 suggested that the recent trend of strong employment growth seen from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012 is probably not going to continue. The slowing growth in the overall economy should show up in the labor market in short order.
Easy Description: Combines several indicators together to provide an outlook for employment growth.
Latest Reading: 107.28 for March 2012 (up 5.2% from one year ago) – February 2012 reading was revised up to 107.47
Implications: The decrease in the ETI is the first we’ve seen in five months, so it’s unclear whether this is the beginning of a trend or just a blip. According to an expert on the index, “Together with the disappointing job growth released on Friday, and only moderate improvement in economic activity in recent months, it seems that employment growth in December to February, averaging almost 250,000 a month, may not be a sustainable trend.”
Those comments don’t sound terribly optimistic but don’t sound the alarm for a downturn either. It sounds like the Conference Board believes that the general economic picture is slowing, and the labor market will follow suit. It is too early to say whether it will slow to the level of a recession.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will base my rating largely upon what the index expert says. If the indication is for job growth of any kind, I will rate it either “positive” or “neutral” depending upon the level of growth. If jobs are expected to decline, I will issue a “negative” rating.
Economic Indicator: Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-Month Moving Average | POSITIVE
Easy Intro: None yet | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: February 2012
Quick ‘n Easy
An index combining 85 indicators into one number suggests that, over a three-month period, the economy was growing at a rate somewhat faster than the historical average in February 2012. This level essentially rules out a recession as of that date.
Easy Description: The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago combines 85 different indicators into one number to give a sense of whether the overall U.S. economy is growing faster than its historical trend (numbers above zero) or slower (numbers below zero). It’s not as simple when you’re trying to determine whether the economy is actually growing (expansion) or shrinking (recession). If you average the last three months’ index values, you get the CFNAI-MA3 (“moving average 3 months”). According to the Chicago Fed:
When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended.
Latest Reading: The more reliable moving average of the last three months (CFNAI-MA3) for February 2012 was positive (+) 0.30, which was slightly better than the previous month’s revised reading of positive (+) 0.22. The single month CFNAI reading for February 2012 was minus (-) 0.09, which is a big drop from the revised positive (+) 0.33 reading for the previous month.
Implications: In February specifically, economic activity was just barely worse than historical averages (-0.09 for the single month reading), and the more reliable way of looking at things shows an economy that was slightly above average (+0.30). We can essentially rule out that a recession had begun in February 2012. That’s all I want you to focus on because month-to-month variations can often mean little. But if you want a deeper dive into the data, read on.
This is the second consecutive month with a substantial drop in the single-month reading. December 2011 was +0.66, January 2012 was +0.33, and February 2012 was -0.09. The biggest culprit for the big single-month drop this time around was “Production and Income” related indicators. They were way above average last month but only average this month. The second biggest reason was a significant drop in the “Employment” indicators from way above average to just somewhat above average.
Only two of the four broad components were significant contributors to February’s single-month slightly negative reading. The “Personal Consumption and Housing” category was well below average (-0.27), but the “Employment, Unemployment and Hours” category was above average (+0.18). That’s not too bad a situation, as it may bode well for the future. People are getting jobs and working longer but not spending it just yet. Maybe that will result in savings for when they can afford to spend more in the future. In summary, of the four broad categories of indicators in January, there were 1 positive, 2 nearly unchanged and 1 negative. Somewhat concerning news – only 35 of the 85 total indicators were better in February than they were in January.
Keep in mind that this index reports significantly later than other ones, likely because it takes a while for all 85 of its required indicators to be updated! Still, I like its comprehensive look at the economy and its fairly reliable prediction of upcoming recessions.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will give this indicator a rating based on the CFNAI-MA3 as follows: +0.20 or higher is “positive”; between +0.20 and -0.70 is “neutral”; -0.70 or worse is “negative.”
Economic Indicator: Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index (EREPSI) | POSITIVE
Easy Intro to Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index | Latest Date This Info Represents: February 2012 (contains estimated portion)
Quick ‘n Easy
An index designed to look at the stability of home prices indicates that, thru February 2012, there is room for another 4.20 percent drop in home prices before reaching a stable point. If trends in months of supply and price/rent ratio continue, it is likely that prices will be right at the stable point in March but not move much beyond that. We will probably see inventory of homes for sale flatten out instead, leaving the EREPSI right around the zero mark.
Easy Description: This index is an average of three indicators that help ascertain whether home prices are above or below historically normal levels: 1) new homes inventory months of supply, 2) existing homes inventory months of supply and 3) price-to-rent ratio. For more info on what these mean, click on the “Easy Intro” above.
Latest Reading: Thru February 2012, the EREPSI is at minus (-) 4.20 percent, which means there is room for another 4.20 percent drop in home prices before reaching a stable point. The February reading is based on actual values for the “months of supply” components but an estimated value for the Case-Shiller HPI that assumes its trend will continue. For recent trends, you can read my latest analysis on new residential homes inventory months of supply or existing homes sales and inventory months of supply.
Implications: After a strong move up starting in July 2011, the index has essentially plateaued since December. If trends continue, it looks like March may have seen conditions reach an equilibrium point. My somewhat arbitrary decision is to call this index “positive” if it’s within 7.5 percent of a the stable point, which of course it is right now. Prospects for some stability in home prices look, dare I say, extremely good. Based on the parameters that this index tracks, there is hope that real estate prices may not move down much farther from here. It was reassuring to see Calculated Risk write that the housing bottom (in prices) is here , but it’s not surprising given that most of this index is based on things I learned at that blog.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: In the housing market, if things get too far “out of whack” with respect to price-to-rent ratio and inventory, it doesn’t matter which direction … it’s a negative. We don’t want a bubble or an overly pessimistic crash. Therefore, I will give this indicator a rating as follows, based on the most recent month with actual “months of supply” data to use in calculations: Within 7.5 percent of zero in either direction is “positive”; within 15 percent of zero in either direction (but not closer than 7.5 percent) is “neutral”; farther than 15 percent from zero in either direction is “negative.”
The only rating change this week is the downgrade of the Consumer Metrics Institute daily leading indicators to a “negative” rating after a brief one-week stint in the “neutral” territory. But there are clear reasons to be a bit more concerned, so let me explain.
The ADS Business Conditions Index may still be “neutral” but it is clearly sounding a note of caution, as it is dipping below zero farther than it has since about a year ago. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is also concerning, not because it’s currently at a super bad level – it’s still “neutral” – but because it had such a precipitous drop in just one week. We may be looking at a big problem if things worsen just a bit more. Lastly, one of the “positive” indicators has a caveat that needs emphasis. The Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index is “positive” only because it signals that there is no bubble (negative or positive) in the housing market. In other words, the market accurately reflects supply and demand. That is good in the sense that any good news in housing can be cheered as opposed to attributing it to irrational purchases. But it doesn’t mean the housing market is anywhere near a good place.
We currently have 2 positive, 5 neutral and 1 negative economic indicators. Using a scale of positive=3, neutral=2 and negative=1, this yields an average rating of 2.125 out of 3 (versus 2.25 last week), which falls in the middle third of the possible range. In other words, my set of economic indicators combine into a “neutral” rating. The consensus view of the above indicators is that economic conditions are consistent with positive growth but below the historical average rate.
NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis. Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.
Disclaimer: My dashboard isn’t really a group of similar indicators, so we can’t say that it represents any one particular thing. For example, it’s not geared strictly toward predicting the future of the economy like a leading indicators dashboard. It’s not like a coincident indicator dashboard that focuses on how things are right this second. It’s just a bunch of things I like to follow, interpreted in a way to be consistent with either economic growth or shrinkage. I would just guess that if the indicators I most like to follow start trending one way or the other, there is a good chance the economy is going that way, too.