I am not able to dedicate the time needed to keep up with my own rules for the Modified Ivy Portfolio Simulation that I began in October 2011. There are elements that require daily attention (like whether a security has moved above or below its moving average enough to justify beginning an early exit). I simply cannot do that and stay true to the experiment. Moreover, I believe much more in the model I use in my EARN (Easynomics Adaptive Risk Newsletters) portfolios, a couple of which are now beating the S&P 500.
As of today, I am ending the portfolio simulation modeled after the Ivy Portfolio. The portfolio finished down about 10-11 percent from where it began, while the S&P 500 ended up about 12-13 percent. Obviously, that difference of about 25 percent is sizable and disappointing. In the last year, the markets have been moving significantly based on things like Federal Reserve announcements, European Central Bank announcements and other headline-driven events. The momentum-based principles of the Ivy Portfolio weren’t well suited for that kind of market. Over many years, it would probably have done fine, but I can’t call it a success based on that.
I’ll leave up the pages that relate to the portfolio, but just know that they will remain out-of-date from here on.