Stock Market Forecast Update

*********************

EASY NOTE: I offer email newsletters documenting several portfolio simulations that apply a concept with solid backtesting and intuitively sound principles.  Click here to learn more about the newsletters or sign up to receive them.  If they’re not outperforming the S&P 500 … they’re free!

*********************

I have updated my Stock Market Forecast page with the latest systems I’m testing.  You can read the explanation there in detail.  The quick summary is that I’m doing two primary models (4-week and 13-week), both using a linear regression model (a statistical way of finding a straight-line relationship between a set of variables and a calculated outcome) that involves four different technical analysis data points.

I graph the stock market forecast for each model over the coming 4-week or 13-week period.

Lastly, I will issue two weighted combination forecasts each week in my update post, each of which makes only one “official” forecast for the record book.  One represents a weighted average between where the two models think the S&P 500 will close this upcoming week.  The weights are based on how sure each model is – that is, using the “standard error” for the regression analysis.  The other is a “Headline Adjusted” model, which tries to account for the fact that extreme and unforeseen events can throw off the models.  So, I remove data that seems affected by such effects and keep the more pure data.  But this model will only make a forecast one week in advance.

Performance of Last Week’s Forecast

(NOTE: The markets are experiencing tremendous upheaval from headlines out of Europe and possibilities for major interventions from central banks, which is extremely difficult to capture with 4-week or 13-week models.  An important caveat to the use of any model that forecasts out that far is that any game-changing event will cause significant deviations.)

Weekly Direction of the S&P 500

Correct:   None

Incorrect:   4-week   /   13-week   /   Weight-Adjusted Combo   /   Headline-Adjusted

 

Accuracy of the Weight-Adjusted Combination Models

Regular Weight-Adjusted Combination: 5.40 percent too optimistic

Headline-Adjusted Combination: 2.86 percent too optimistic

Notes: Bad week for the regular combo in direction and accuracy, but HA model was much less off than the regular combo.

 

Accuracy of Individual Models

4-week Model:  6.77 percent too optimistic

Correct Prediction of S&P 500 Direction thru Last Week’s Close:  0 out of 4 predictions

Notes: It was consistently way too optimistic in each of its four predictions, and its accuracy gradually worsened over that course.  Interestingly, the close on Nov 16 was in the 95 percent confidence interval for three of its four predictions despite being way off.

 

13-week Model:  4.50 percent too optimistic

Correct Prediction of S&P 500 Direction thru Last Week’s Close:  7 out of 13 predictions

Notes: The model was always way too optimistic and missed the direction on its final three attempts.  The last five predictions didn’t have the correct closing level in their 95 percent confidence intervals.

 

Buy-Sell Simulation

The simulated weekly trade using the weighted average of the two primary models can be found on the “Buy-Sell Simulation” tab of the spreadsheet

Weekly Profit/Loss vs S&P 500 buy-and-hold:  Loss of $ 0.56

Cumulative Profit/Loss vs S&P 500 buy-and-hold:  Loss of $603 (initial $10,000 investment, excluding costs of trading)

Wins and Losses vs S&P 500 buy-and-hold (Win = $25 gain or more, Loss = $25 loss or worse): 46 pct

Notes: The system still has a winning streak of two (four ties are in the mix, where slight difference is due to selling five minutes before the close).

 

Stock Market Forecast Summary for Upcoming Week

Here’s the breakdown:

Forecast Change in S&P 500 This Week (Nov 19-Nov 23, 2012) 4-Week Model 13-Week Model Weighted Average
Standard up 5.00 pct up 5.24 pct up 5.14 pct
Headline Adjusted down 0.47 pct up 0.71 pct up 0.22 pct

The weighted average forecast for the two models says that on the close of November 23, 2012, the S&P 500 will be 1,429.83 – which translates to a 5.14 percent rise this week.  Adjusted for headlines, I would expect a level of 1,362.93 – which translates to a 0.22 percent rise this week.  Check out the Stock Market Forecast page for exact numbers and charts.

*********************

EASY NOTE: I offer email newsletters documenting several portfolio simulations that apply a concept with solid backtesting and intuitively sound principles.  Click here to learn more about the newsletters or sign up to receive them.  If they’re not outperforming the S&P 500 … they’re free!

*********************

Evolution of the Forecast

Basic Concept: We’ve had several forecasts for next week’s close from the 13-week and 4-week models.  The evolution of the forecast could give us a sense for whether the forecasts are too high or too low.

4-week Model: May be sloping upward slightly.  This suggests the forecast may have been a little higher with another round of forecasting, but not much.

13-week Model: The forecast has been fairly flat, so this forecast is probably where it would be if we ran another round.

Bottom Line of Forecast Evolution: The forecasts are both about where they would be even if we had another round of forecasting, and clearly they would not have been lower.

You can see the “evolution” data on “Forecast Archive” section of the Stock Market Forecast page by clicking on the tabs at the bottom of the chart.

 

Share