Stock Market Technical Analysis – Tech It Easy (thru November 30, 2012)

Sorry, the crazy schedule continues, so I’ll just post the ratings with no analysis …

S&P 500 Technical Analysis Summary

Source:   |   NEUTRAL

Note: Even though it’s a 67% buy, the signal strengths are not strong enough to move this into a composite “buy” according to my calculations.

Source:   |   BULLISH

Source:   |   NEUTRAL

Source: Price vs 200-day Moving Average from   |   BULLISH

Stock Market Technical Analysis Summaries – Additional Sources

Quick ‘n Easy

Several other sites provide an overview of the stock market technical analysis of SPY.  They don’t have a clear 3-month time horizon, so they aren’t included with the rest of the analyses above or in the calculation at the bottom of this page.  In general, these analyses of SPY are neutral right now.

Below, I will mention a few other sites’ stock market technical analysis of where things stand with SPY or the S&P 500.  I don’t include these in my calculated average at the bottom of this page, however.  This is because these other sources don’t necessarily look at a 3-month time period for their forecasts.  But it’s nice to see what they are saying to get a sense for the consensus view.

Source:   |   NEUTRAL   |   This site uses stock market technical analysis for the last few days of trading only, using the opening price, closing price and up/down movement of the day to make a prediction.  That information is translated into a series of “candlesticks” that technical analysts believe can show patterns that correlate with ups and downs.   |   NEUTRAL  |   The “PowerRatings” system analyzes all kinds of quantitative data to forecast the price for the next 1-5 trading days, but it’s a proprietary method of stock market technical analysis (i.e., a “secret”).  It probably includes a lot of analyses that other sources on this page also use.   |   NEUTRAL   |  No signals issued last week.   |   NEUTRAL   |   The analysis shows mixed picture.

Easy Take

There were no ratings changes this week.

Out of the four stock market technical analysis sources I’ve mentioned, we have 2 bullish, 2 neutral and 0 bearish.  If we were to average these using 3 points for “bullish”, 2 points for “neutral” and 1 point for “bearish,” we’d get an average of 2.5 out of 3 (versus 2.5 last week).  If we split the interval between 1 and 3 (which are the minimum and maximum we could get as an average) into three equal parts, that means the following:

1-1.666 = Bearish
1.667-2.333 = Neutral
2.334-3 = Bullish

Right now, the several indicators I’ve chosen to follow suggest a bullish outlook for the S&P 500 and, most likely, the market in general for the next 3 months.  This outlook was bullish last week.

The outlook shown above is based on what the stock market technical analysis sources themselves are predicting.  I have been examining the relationship between components of the analyses I’ve mentioned to the S&P 500 index over the subsequent 4 weeks or 13 weeks.  Based on that, I publish an Easynomics stock market forecast for the S&P 500.