Loading ...Easynomics Court
For an explanation on “Easynomics Court” and how it works, read this page on leading indicators vs six months into the future.
Leading Indicators vs February 2012
Original charge made in August 2011: “The Leading Indicators hereby charge that February 2012 shall be a NEUTRAL month, as indicated by a positive growth rate but below historical averages.”
NOTE: I don’t have all the historical data perfectly the way I’d like to see it from August 2011 (the date the “charges” would have been made) so I am only reasonably certain that the leading indicators would have charged it this way.
Exhibit A – ECRI U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate | NEUTRAL
The U.S. Coincident Index for February 2012 grew at an annualized rate of 3.41 percent from the index six months prior. This is positive and barely above a historically average level of 3.3 percent. This is consistent with an economy that is not in recession but not growing at an unusually fast pace either.
Easy Description: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) does something very similar to the Coincident Economic Index from The Conference Board, but they are not at all transparent about how they do their calculations. We can only wait to see what they publish as their index level and see where it leaves us.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: I like to examine the indicator’s growth rate over the past six months but expressed as an annualized rate. When that is between 3.0 and 3.6 percent, I will issue a “neutral” rating – above or below that range will be “positive” or “negative” respectively.
