Loading ...Politics and the economy will always be tied closely together. The 2012 Presidential Election will, more than ever, be about the nation’s economy. As a result, I’d like to highlight for you the status of the race on a regular basis.
If you know me, you know that I love numbers and statistics. So, I will attempt to summarize the situation using various sources that employ poll numbers, indexes and other statistical methods. Let me know if you’d like to see any changes to how I present the data.
Electronic Trading Markets
(People Making Bets)
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Quick ‘n Easy In electronic marketplaces where people bet real money on what will happen, we typically see accurate forecasts. Right now, the betting patterns suggest that the Democrats are firmly in control of the race to the White House. Mitt Romney is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. |
Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)
From the IEM website:
The IEM 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Markets are real-money futures markets where contract payoffs will be determined by the popular vote cast in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.
This means that people use real money to make bets on who will win the election and are paid if they win. This has traditionally been one of the most accurate ways of forecasting almost anything, including elections.
The latest trading indicates that: continue reading…
