Stock Market Technical Analysis – Tech It Easy (thru May 18, 2012)

Stock market technical analysis is all you need to know, complete hogwash or somewhere in between.  It depends on who you ask.  If you find it interesting, you’ll probably like reading this weekly feature.

This is my standard intro to stock market technical analysis – you can skip down to the table (or click “continue reading”) if you read this feature regularly:

Many people who trade in the markets believe that there are patterns that can generally lead to profitable trades.  By analyzing stock charts that show the change in price along with the volume (how many shares were traded), “technical analysts” believe they have an edge and can time their trades profitably.  There is significant controversy over this subject, however.  Others say that, unless you have some information that no one else does, basically you can never beat “the market” because everything is already baked into the current price of a stock.

Nevertheless, supporters of stock market technical analysis are everywhere, and the tools for their trade can be found throughout bookstores and the Internet.  I like to follow some websites that do some of the work automatically and provide a snapshot opinion of whether a particular stock is considered “bullish” (going to go up in price), “bearish” (going to go down in price) or “neutral” (stay about the same price).

For simplicity, I’d like to start by showing you a snapshot of what several stock market technical analysis websites suggest about the exchange traded fund (ETF) with the ticker symbol of SPY.  This fund is supposed to go up and down the same as the S&P 500 index does.  And many people consider the S&P 500 index (a measure of the price of the 500 largest companies that trade in the U.S.) to be an accurate gauge of where “the market” stands.

For each of the sources below, where I have a choice, I will use a measure that attempts to predict the future direction of SPY or S&P 500 in the next 3 months.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis Summary

Source: Barchart.com   |   BEARISH   (downgrade)

Source: BarChart.com

Easy Notes: BarChart.com says that SPY is positioned to fall over the next three months.  This is the first non-bullish assessment after 23 consecutive weeks at a “bullish” level.  Two of the three signals are in the “sell” position, and the only that is considered a strong signal (at maximum strength actually and getting more so) is one of those two sell signals.  The one “buy” signal does happen to be the most predictive of the three signals, however.  But it is only average strength and moving toward a bearish direction.

continue reading…

Stock Market Technical Analysis – Tech It Easy (thru May 11, 2012)

Stock market technical analysis is all you need to know, complete hogwash or somewhere in between.  It depends on who you ask.  If you find it interesting, you’ll probably like reading this weekly feature.

This is my standard intro to stock market technical analysis – you can skip down to the table (or click “continue reading”) if you read this feature regularly:

Many people who trade in the markets believe that there are patterns that can generally lead to profitable trades.  By analyzing stock charts that show the change in price along with the volume (how many shares were traded), “technical analysts” believe they have an edge and can time their trades profitably.  There is significant controversy over this subject, however.  Others say that, unless you have some information that no one else does, basically you can never beat “the market” because everything is already baked into the current price of a stock.

Nevertheless, supporters of stock market technical analysis are everywhere, and the tools for their trade can be found throughout bookstores and the Internet.  I like to follow some websites that do some of the work automatically and provide a snapshot opinion of whether a particular stock is considered “bullish” (going to go up in price), “bearish” (going to go down in price) or “neutral” (stay about the same price).

For simplicity, I’d like to start by showing you a snapshot of what several stock market technical analysis websites suggest about the exchange traded fund (ETF) with the ticker symbol of SPY.  This fund is supposed to go up and down the same as the S&P 500 index does.  And many people consider the S&P 500 index (a measure of the price of the 500 largest companies that trade in the U.S.) to be an accurate gauge of where “the market” stands.

For each of the sources below, where I have a choice, I will use a measure that attempts to predict the future direction of SPY or S&P 500 in the next 3 months.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis Summary

Source: Barchart.com   |   BULLISH

Source: BarChart.com

Easy Notes: BarChart.com says that SPY is positioned to rise over the next three months.  This is the 23rd consecutive week with a “bullish” assessment.  For the seventh time in eight weeks, one of the three signals is “hold” again, and it looks to be headed toward a more bearish position.  Fortunately, that signal is the least predictive of the three.  One of the two other signals (both “buy”) is at the weakest possible strength and headed in a bearish direction, while the only strong buy signal is also headed in the wrong direction.  So, this bullish assessment isn’t particularly reassuring as bullish assessments go.

continue reading…

Stock Market Technical Analysis – Summary of S&P 500 Technicals (thru May 4, 2012)

Stock market technical analysis is all you need to know, complete hogwash or somewhere in between.  It depends on who you ask.  If you find it interesting, you’ll probably like reading this weekly feature.

This is my standard intro to stock market technical analysis – you can skip down to the table (or click “continue reading”) if you read this feature regularly:

Many people who trade in the markets believe that there are patterns that can generally lead to profitable trades.  By analyzing stock charts that show the change in price along with the volume (how many shares were traded), “technical analysts” believe they have an edge and can time their trades profitably.  There is significant controversy over this subject, however.  Others say that, unless you have some information that no one else does, basically you can never beat “the market” because everything is already baked into the current price of a stock.

Nevertheless, supporters of stock market technical analysis are everywhere, and the tools for their trade can be found throughout bookstores and the Internet.  I like to follow some websites that do some of the work automatically and provide a snapshot opinion of whether a particular stock is considered “bullish” (going to go up in price), “bearish” (going to go down in price) or “neutral” (stay about the same price).

For simplicity, I’d like to start by showing you a snapshot of what several stock market technical analysis websites suggest about the exchange traded fund (ETF) with the ticker symbol of SPY.  This fund is supposed to go up and down the same as the S&P 500 index does.  And many people consider the S&P 500 index (a measure of the price of the 500 largest companies that trade in the U.S.) to be an accurate gauge of where “the market” stands.

For each of the sources below, where I have a choice, I will use a measure that attempts to predict the future direction of SPY or S&P 500 in the next 3 months.

Source: Barchart.com   |   BULLISH

Source: BarChart.com

Easy Notes: BarChart.com says that SPY is positioned to rise over the next three months.  This is the 22nd consecutive week with a “bullish” assessment.  For the sixth time in seven weeks, one of the three signals is “hold” again, and it looks to be headed toward a more bearish position.  Fortunately, that signal is the least predictive of the three.  One of the two other signals (both “buy”) is at weak strength.  So, this bullish assessment isn’t particularly enthusiastic.

continue reading…