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Just a quick note to let my regular readers know that I’ll be on hiatus for a couple of days. I’ll probably return to posting on Thursday or Friday. I absolutely love doing this blog, but sometimes it has to take a backseat to life and the “other” job that pays the bills … but I still plan to continue posting pretty much every day.
When I return, I’ll have a few updates to get to, including but not limited to:
- New Homes Inventory Months of Supply – Easy Trends update
- Weekly Jobless Claims – Easy Trends update
- Fair value price for S&P 500 for end of February 2012
- Durable Goods Orders – Easy Trends
Thanks for your patience!
I wanted to let my readers know that I’m making a change to my stock market forecasting experiment. Based on some analysis I’ve done of its performance so far (dreadful), I fear that in its current form, it will never become a useful or interesting way to forecast. As a result, I am discontinuing the experiment as you’ve seen it thus far.
Instead, I plan to start over with a new system of forecasting. It may involve the use of two different models and combining where they overlap. I haven’t had time the last few days to work on my blog the way I’d like, so this may take a few days before I unveil it. Anyway, stay tuned …
I’d appreciate hearing from any of you (comments below) about the way I was presenting it before, just so I can make changes to make it more interesting for everyone. Hope you’re having a nice week!
The markets are closed tomorrow for Presidents Day. I will be making my post regarding the stock market forecast and performance of my simulated portfolio tomorrow most likely instead of today. Furthermore, I am in the process of switching to a different model for forecasting the market, as I don’t believe the one I’ve been using is robust enough to correlate with the markets. I’ll explain more in my post. Happy Sunday to all!
Just wanted my readers to know I’ll be out of commission for a couple of days. Won’t have time/access to make usual posts until Wed night or Thu morning.
Also, just to let you know, I’m close to releasing a couple of new special indexes of my own. Remember, I’m not an economist, so these are all just things I enjoy creating to track what I like to track. I’m sharing here because, well, it’s my blog! I’ve already talked about my Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index (EREPSI – this is really just a sarcastic attempt at giving my index a sense of legitimacy). The next two I’m working on will focus on jobs and the economy in general.
Hope you’re all well!
I’ve decided to run a simulated portfolio using a modified version of the “Ivy Portfolio” – a technique that attempts to gain an advantage over the market averages by using momentum. You can read more about my rules for this hypothetical portfolio here.
Today’s Transactions
Last night’s intro post on this experiment showed “buy” signals for AGG and IPE but “sell” signals for the other seven ETFs. Because we are in the middle of the month, I will use a gradual approach. There are 9 trading days left, including today, in October. If there were no cost to trading, I’d buy one-ninth of my desired final position each day, but it does cost to trade. So, I’ll do it in five-day groupings at a time. Instead of buying or selling short $1,111 (that’s one-ninth of $10,000) of each ETF today, I will do it fives times as much, or $5555. I will buy/sell short the rest of the balance five trading days from now (one week).
Therefore, I made the following transactions at prices quoted at 5 minutes after the opening bell (9:35 am ET): continue reading…
