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Browsing Posts tagged Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Leading Indicators vs September 2013 – Easynomics Court

June 12, 2013 at 1:00 am No comments

Leading Indicators vs September 2013 – Easynomics Court

For an explanation on “Easynomics Court” and how it works, read this page on leading indicators vs six months into the future.

NOTE: In case you are accessing this post long after it was originally posted, you may also be interested in the most recent Easynomics Court case.

As of today, the official Easynomics Court conviction record for categorizing the growth level six months into the future is:

  • 5 – Guilty (Win)
  • 6 – Not Guilty (Loss)
  • Conviction Rate = 45 percent

Leading Indicators from March 2013

Charges Filed: “The Leading Indicators hereby charge that September 2013 shall be a NEUTRAL month, as indicated by a positive annualized growth rate but below the historical average of 3.3 percent.”

Exhibit A – e-Forecasting Leading Economic Indicator (eLEI) | NEUTRAL

In the six months leading up to March 2013, the e-Forecasting eLEI rose at an annualized rate of about 1.3 percent.  This is consistent with an economy that is growing but at a slower-than-average rate, historically speaking.

Easy Description: e-Forecasting.com has many useful tools for tracking the economy.  Their Leading Economic Indicator (eLEI) is a proprietary model to predict the direction of the economy several months in advance.  The concept is similar to The Conference Board’s LEI does.  Many people believe this is a good leading indicator for the economy, and there is some very good work that validates that.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will calculate the change in the eLEI over the six months leading up to the month the “charges” are being filed.  I will convert that change into an annualized rate.  If the annualized rate is less than zero, I will issue a “negative” rating – 3.3 percent or higher will be “positive” – anything in between will be “neutral.”  NOTE: I will use the first available data for the month where possible – i.e., I won’t use revised data – this way, I’m simulating what the leading indicators really believe at the time they are released.

continue reading…

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State By State Economy – West Virginia Overtakes Michigan in April

May 29, 2013 at 8:37 pm No comments

State By State Economy – Philadelphia Fed Index for Every U.S. State (thru April 2013)

A state by state economy analysis is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia each month.  How’s your state doing?  I’d love to hear about it in the comments section.

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest state by state economy analysis for more info.

On this site, I share a lot of indices that tell us how things are going in the country – for example, my weekly economic indicators roundup.  But what each of you feels is much more related to what’s happening in your specific state.  Wouldn’t it be great if there were an economic index we could follow that tracked exactly that?  Fortunately, that’s what the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia does on a monthly basis, providing us a look at the state by state economy.

They produce a “Coincident State Index” that combines several different economic factors into one number.  This basically tracks the current rate of GDP (measure of all economic output) growth (or contraction if it’s negative) for the state.  The other index is a “Leading State Index” that combines several different leading indicators to predict the annualized pace at which the Coincident State Index will be growing over the next six months.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes

Look at the chart below to see how fast each state’s GDP is growing right now.  It’s color-coded, so the green colors mean the state’s economy is growing (the darker the better), and the red colors mean the state’s economy is shrinking (the darker the worse).  Blue indicates essentially no change.

 

State By State Economy - Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes April 2013

Source: PhiladelphiaFed.org

 

Philadelphia Fed State Leading Indexes

Look at the chart below to see how fast each state’s Coincident Index is expected to grow over the next six months.  This is actually an annualized growth rate over the next 6 months, not the actual growth itself.  It’s color-coded, so blue is the best, and the green colors mean the state’s economy is expected to grow (the darker the better), and the red colors mean the state’s economy is expected to shrink (the darker the worse). continue reading…

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State By State Economy – Michigan Motoring to the Top of the List

May 2, 2013 at 1:00 am Comments off

State By State Economy – Philadelphia Fed Index for Every U.S. State (thru March 2013)

A state by state economy analysis is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia each month.  How’s your state doing?  I’d love to hear about it in the comments section.

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest state by state economy analysis for more info.

On this site, I share a lot of indices that tell us how things are going in the country – for example, my weekly economic indicators roundup.  But what each of you feels is much more related to what’s happening in your specific state.  Wouldn’t it be great if there were an economic index we could follow that tracked exactly that?  Fortunately, that’s what the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia does on a monthly basis, providing us a look at the state by state economy.

They produce a “Coincident State Index” that combines several different economic factors into one number.  This basically tracks the current rate of GDP (measure of all economic output) growth (or contraction if it’s negative) for the state.  The other index is a “Leading State Index” that combines several different leading indicators to predict the annualized pace at which the Coincident State Index will be growing over the next six months.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes

Look at the chart below to see how fast each state’s GDP is growing right now.  It’s color-coded, so the green colors mean the state’s economy is growing (the darker the better), and the red colors mean the state’s economy is shrinking (the darker the worse).  Blue indicates essentially no change.

State By State Economy - Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes March 2013

Source: PhiladelphiaFed.org

 

Philadelphia Fed State Leading Indexes

Look at the chart below to see how fast each state’s Coincident Index is expected to grow over the next six months.  This is actually an annualized growth rate over the next 6 months, not the actual growth itself.  It’s color-coded, so blue is the best, and the green colors mean the state’s economy is expected to grow (the darker the better), and the red colors mean the state’s economy is expected to shrink (the darker the worse). continue reading…

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Leading Indicators vs August 2013 – Easynomics Court

April 19, 2013 at 1:00 am Comments off

Leading Indicators vs August 2013 – Easynomics Court

For an explanation on “Easynomics Court” and how it works, read this page on leading indicators vs six months into the future.

NOTE: In case you are accessing this post long after it was originally posted, you may also be interested in the most recent Easynomics Court case.

As of today, the official Easynomics Court conviction record for categorizing the growth level six months into the future is:

  • 4 – Guilty (Win)
  • 6 – Not Guilty (Loss)
  • Conviction Rate = 40 percent

Leading Indicators from February 2013

Charges Filed: “The Leading Indicators hereby charge that August 2013 shall be a NEUTRAL month, as indicated by a positive annualized growth rate but below the historical average of 3.3 percent.”

Exhibit A – e-Forecasting Leading Economic Indicator (eLEI) | NEUTRAL

In the six months leading up to February 2013, the e-Forecasting eLEI rose at an annualized rate of about 2.8 percent.  This is consistent with an economy that is growing but at a slower-than-average rate, historically speaking.

Easy Description: e-Forecasting.com has many useful tools for tracking the economy.  Their Leading Economic Indicator (eLEI) is a proprietary model to predict the direction of the economy several months in advance.  The concept is similar to The Conference Board’s LEI does.  Many people believe this is a good leading indicator for the economy, and there is some very good work that validates that.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will calculate the change in the eLEI over the six months leading up to the month the “charges” are being filed.  I will convert that change into an annualized rate.  If the annualized rate is less than zero, I will issue a “negative” rating – 3.3 percent or higher will be “positive” – anything in between will be “neutral.”  NOTE: I will use the first available data for the month where possible – i.e., I won’t use revised data – this way, I’m simulating what the leading indicators really believe at the time they are released.

continue reading…

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State By State Economy – Rhode Island Coming On Strong in February

April 17, 2013 at 1:00 am Comments off

State By State Economy – Philadelphia Fed Index for Every U.S. State (thru February 2013)

A state by state economy analysis is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia each month.  How’s your state doing?  I’d love to hear about it in the comments section.

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest state by state economy analysis for more info.

On this site, I share a lot of indices that tell us how things are going in the country – for example, my weekly economic indicators roundup.  But what each of you feels is much more related to what’s happening in your specific state.  Wouldn’t it be great if there were an economic index we could follow that tracked exactly that?  Fortunately, that’s what the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia does on a monthly basis, providing us a look at the state by state economy.

They produce a “Coincident State Index” that combines several different economic factors into one number.  This basically tracks the current rate of GDP (measure of all economic output) growth (or contraction if it’s negative) for the state.  The other index is a “Leading State Index” that combines several different leading indicators to predict the annualized pace at which the Coincident State Index will be growing over the next six months.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes

Look at the chart below to see how fast each state’s GDP is growing right now.  It’s color-coded, so the green colors mean the state’s economy is growing (the darker the better), and the red colors mean the state’s economy is shrinking (the darker the worse).  Blue indicates essentially no change.

State By State Economy - Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes February 2013

Source: PhiladelphiaFed.org

Philadelphia Fed State Leading Indexes

Look at the chart below to see how fast each state’s Coincident Index is expected to grow over the next six months.  This is actually an annualized growth rate over the next 6 months, not the actual growth itself.  It’s color-coded, so blue is the best, and the green colors mean the state’s economy is expected to grow (the darker the better), and the red colors mean the state’s economy is expected to shrink (the darker the worse). continue reading…

Share
Economy, Indicators , , , , , ,

Leading Indicators vs July 2013 – Easynomics Court

April 9, 2013 at 1:00 am Comments off

Leading Indicators vs July 2013 – Easynomics Court

For an explanation on “Easynomics Court” and how it works, read this page on leading indicators vs six months into the future.

NOTE: In case you are accessing this post long after it was originally posted, you may also be interested in the most recent Easynomics Court case.

As of today, the official Easynomics Court conviction record for categorizing the growth level six months into the future is:

  • 4 – Guilty (Win)
  • 5 – Not Guilty (Loss)
  • Conviction Rate = 44 percent

Leading Indicators from January 2013

Charges Filed: “The Leading Indicators hereby charge that July 2013 shall be a NEUTRAL month, as indicated by a positive annualized growth rate but below the historical average of 3.3 percent.”

Exhibit A – e-Forecasting Leading Economic Indicator (eLEI) | NEGATIVE

In the six months leading up to January 2013, the e-Forecasting eLEI dropped at an annualized rate of about 0.8 percent.  This is consistent with an economy that is shrinking.

Easy Description: e-Forecasting.com has many useful tools for tracking the economy.  Their Leading Economic Indicator (eLEI) is a proprietary model to predict the direction of the economy several months in advance.  The concept is similar to The Conference Board’s LEI does.  Many people believe this is a good leading indicator for the economy, and there is some very good work that validates that.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will calculate the change in the eLEI over the six months leading up to the month the “charges” are being filed.  I will convert that change into an annualized rate.  If the annualized rate is less than zero, I will issue a “negative” rating – 3.3 percent or higher will be “positive” – anything in between will be “neutral.”  NOTE: I will use the first available data for the month where possible – i.e., I won’t use revised data – this way, I’m simulating what the leading indicators really believe at the time they are released.

continue reading…

Share
Easynomics Court, Economy, Indicators , , , , , , , ,
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