Browsing Posts tagged new homes

Economic Indicators Roundup (July 6, 2015)

Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative.  For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one’s section how I decide which rating to give it.  At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand.  It’s not scientifically rigorous or anything.

  • Positive – indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
  • Neutral – indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
  • Negative – indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.

(NOTE: For a “Quick ‘n Easy” read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my “Easy Take” summary at the end.  You can review any charts/graphs afterward.  I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I’m trying to making them easy …)


Quick Summary

Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open) Current Rating (change from previous roundup)
GDPNow (GDP Forecast from Atlanta Fed) Neutral
ADS Business Conditions Index Neutral
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Neutral
Big Four Economic Indicators Neutral
Daily Consumer Leading Indicators Negative
Employment Trends Index Positive
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Neutral
Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index Positive
 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Reports slightly worse than expectations
Easy Trends Dashboard   (min/max -3 to +3) +1.67 = Very likely moving in a positive direction with a few unconfirmed trends or trends in a bad direction

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.



Economic Indicator: GDPNow   |   NEUTRAL
Easy Intro: None yet   |   Link to Source   |   Latest Date This Info Represents: 2nd Quarter 2015 (i.e., three months ending June 2015)

Quick ‘n Easy

The current forecast for real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2015 is 2.2 percent – below-average growth by historical standards but modestly better than the 1st quarter’s slight contraction. The Federal Reserve Board of Atlanta combines a whole bunch of public data to mimic what the government does when reporting Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of the economy that is widely accepted. It basically measures the value of all goods and services produced in the country, regardless of industry. In a sense, that’s what economics is all about, the value of things. The rate at which GDP is growing tells us whether our economy is strong or not. Historically, the average has been about 3.3 percent per year. It would be great to see at least that rate of growth.

Economic Indicators - GDPNow from Atlanta Fed - Jul 1 2015

Source: FRBAtlanta.org

Easy Description: GDPNow is a frequently updated estimate of the growth rate of the economy (GDP growth) as opposed to having to wait for quarterly estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for “official” figures.

Latest Readings:

2nd Quarter of 2015: On July 1, GDPNow is positive (+) 2.2 percent annualized growth rate (versus +2.1 percent on June 25)

NOTE: “Annualized growth rate” is how much growth we would see over a full year if economic growth continued at the same pace as it did in the latest quarter being forecast.

Implications: The 1st quarter of 2015 showed slight contraction (-0.7 percent annualized rate), but many feel it was slowed by several temporary factors that should subside over the course of the following quarters. The latest indications of 2nd quarter growth suggest better growth than the 1st quarter, but still below historical averages.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use data on the most recent quarter available. If the latest GDPNow estimate refers to a quarter for which there is already an official BEA reading, then I will go with the BEA reading. I will rate anything between zero and (+) 3.3 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.

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Economic Indicators Roundup (June 30, 2015)

Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative.  For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one’s section how I decide which rating to give it.  At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand.  It’s not scientifically rigorous or anything.

  • Positive – indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
  • Neutral – indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
  • Negative – indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.

(NOTE: For a “Quick ‘n Easy” read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my “Easy Take” summary at the end.  You can review any charts/graphs afterward.  I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I’m trying to making them easy …)


Quick Summary

Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open) Current Rating (change from previous roundup)
GDPNow (GDP Forecast from Atlanta Fed) Neutral
ADS Business Conditions Index Neutral
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Neutral   (Downgrade)
Big Four Economic Indicators Neutral
Daily Consumer Leading Indicators Negative
Employment Trends Index Positive
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Neutral
Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index Positive
 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Reports generally worse than expectations
Easy Trends Dashboard   (min/max -3 to +3) +1.67 = Very likely moving in a positive direction with a few unconfirmed trends or trends in a bad direction

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.



Economic Indicator: GDPNow   |   NEUTRAL
Easy Intro: None yet   |   Link to Source   |   Latest Date This Info Represents: 2nd Quarter 2015 (i.e., three months ending June 2015)

Quick ‘n Easy

The current forecast for real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2015 is 2.1 percent – below-average growth by historical standards but modestly better than the 1st quarter’s slight contraction. The Federal Reserve Board of Atlanta combines a whole bunch of public data to mimic what the government does when reporting Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of the economy that is widely accepted. It basically measures the value of all goods and services produced in the country, regardless of industry. In a sense, that’s what economics is all about, the value of things. The rate at which GDP is growing tells us whether our economy is strong or not. Historically, the average has been about 3.3 percent per year. It would be great to see at least that rate of growth.

Economic Indicators - GDPNow from Atlanta Fed - Jun 25 2015

Source: FRBAtlanta.org

Easy Description: GDPNow is a frequently updated estimate of the growth rate of the economy (GDP growth) as opposed to having to wait for quarterly estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for “official” figures.

Latest Readings:

2nd Quarter of 2015: On June 25, GDPNow is positive (+) 2.1 percent annualized growth rate (versus +1.9 percent on June 16)

NOTE: “Annualized growth rate” is how much growth we would see over a full year if economic growth continued at the same pace as it did in the latest quarter being forecast.

Implications: The 1st quarter of 2015 showed slight contraction (-0.7 percent annualized rate), but many feel it was slowed by several temporary factors that should subside over the course of the following quarters. The latest indications of 2nd quarter growth suggest better growth than the 1st quarter, but still below historical averages.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use data on the most recent quarter available. If the latest GDPNow estimate refers to a quarter for which there is already an official BEA reading, then I will go with the BEA reading. I will rate anything between zero and (+) 3.3 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.

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New Residential Homes Sales and Inventory Months of Supply – Easy Trends (thru May 2015)

Sales of new residential homes contributes to the GDP, and the level of supply can indicate something about prices. I’m continuing a feature called “Easy Trends” – a place where I’ll analyze the recent trend for an indicator (in this one, it is new residential homes sales and inventory) and discuss whether it is currently going up, down or neither. You can read the basics of my methodology on the FAQ page.

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis. Please visit my latest new residential homes inventory months of supply trend analysis for more info.

Quick ‘n Easy

For new residential homes reports, there are two key things to look at: 1) number of homes sold and 2) inventory of homes for sale. When there are too many new residential homes still left unsold (inventory) on the market, it usually means that prices will be dropping because supply is greater than demand. A good way of measuring the inventory is to calculate how long it would take that inventory to sell at the current pace of sales. The normal level of supply for new residential homes is a little less than 6 months.

For new residential homes reports, there are two key things to look at: 1) number of homes sold and 2) inventory of homes for sale. We care about the number sold because each one contributes to the overall economy (builders get paid, brokers get paid, companies that made the raw materials get paid, etc). We care about inventory because when there are too many new residential homes still left unsold (inventory) on the market, it usually means that prices will be dropping because supply is greater than demand. The opposite is true if there is very low inventory. A good way of measuring whether current levels of new residential homes are too high or too low is to calculate how long it would take the current inventory to sell at the current annual pace of sales. For example, if there are 150,000 unsold new residential homes with the most recent report saying the annual pace of sales was 225,000, here’s what the calculation would look like:

Example:
225,000 new residential homes sold per year
divide by 12 to get 18,750 new residential homes sold per month
150,000 unsold homes divided by 18,750 sold per month = 8 months supply

Here’s a graph of the New Residential Homes Sales followed by Inventory Months of Supply from Calculated Risk:

New Residential Homes Sales May 2015 - Calculated Risk

Courtesy: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

New Residential Homes Inventory Months of Supply May 2015 - Calculated Risk

Courtesy: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

New Residential Homes Trends and Projections

Below, I will discuss whether the indicators are currently in a trend, when the last confirmed trend was and what that says about projecting the next data points to be released. I usually start my trend analysis from about three years ago.

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Economic Indicators Roundup (June 22, 2015)

Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative.  For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one’s section how I decide which rating to give it.  At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand.  It’s not scientifically rigorous or anything.

  • Positive – indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
  • Neutral – indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
  • Negative – indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.

(NOTE: For a “Quick ‘n Easy” read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my “Easy Take” summary at the end.  You can review any charts/graphs afterward.  I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I’m trying to making them easy …)


Quick Summary

Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open) Current Rating (change from previous roundup)
GDPNow (GDP Forecast from Atlanta Fed) Neutral
ADS Business Conditions Index Neutral   (Downgrade)
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Positive
Big Four Economic Indicators Neutral
Daily Consumer Leading Indicators Negative
Employment Trends Index Positive
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Neutral
Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index Positive
 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Reports generally worse than expectations
Easy Trends Dashboard   (min/max -3 to +3) +1.67 = Very likely moving in a positive direction with a few unconfirmed trends or trends in a bad direction

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.



Economic Indicator: GDPNow   |   NEUTRAL
Easy Intro: None yet   |   Link to Source   |   Latest Date This Info Represents: 2nd Quarter 2015 (i.e., three months ending June 2015)

Quick ‘n Easy

The current forecast for real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2015 is 1.9 percent – below-average growth by historical standards but modestly better than the 1st quarter’s slight contraction. The Federal Reserve Board of Atlanta combines a whole bunch of public data to mimic what the government does when reporting Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of the economy that is widely accepted. It basically measures the value of all goods and services produced in the country, regardless of industry. In a sense, that’s what economics is all about, the value of things. The rate at which GDP is growing tells us whether our economy is strong or not. Historically, the average has been about 3.3 percent per year. It would be great to see at least that rate of growth.

Economic Indicators - GDPNow from Atlanta Fed - Jun 16 2015

Source: FRBAtlanta.org

Easy Description: GDPNow is a frequently updated estimate of the growth rate of the economy (GDP growth) as opposed to having to wait for quarterly estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for “official” figures.

Latest Readings:

2nd Quarter of 2015: On June 16, GDPNow is positive (+) 1.9 percent annualized growth rate (versus +1.5 percent on June 9)

NOTE: “Annualized growth rate” is how much growth we would see over a full year if economic growth continued at the same pace as it did in the latest quarter being forecast.

Implications: The 1st quarter of 2015 showed slight contraction (-0.7 percent annualized rate), but many feel it was slowed by several temporary factors that should subside over the course of the following quarters. The latest indications of 2nd quarter growth suggest better growth than the 1st quarter, but still below historical averages.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use data on the most recent quarter available. If the latest GDPNow estimate refers to a quarter for which there is already an official BEA reading, then I will go with the BEA reading. I will rate anything between zero and (+) 3.3 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.

continue reading…

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Economic Indicators Roundup (June 10, 2015)

Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative.  For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one’s section how I decide which rating to give it.  At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand.  It’s not scientifically rigorous or anything.

  • Positive – indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
  • Neutral – indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
  • Negative – indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.

(NOTE: For a “Quick ‘n Easy” read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my “Easy Take” summary at the end.  You can review any charts/graphs afterward.  I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I’m trying to making them easy …)


Quick Summary

Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open) Current Rating (change from previous roundup)
GDPNow (GDP Forecast from Atlanta Fed) Neutral
ADS Business Conditions Index Positive   (Upgrade)
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Positive
Big Four Economic Indicators Neutral
Daily Consumer Leading Indicators Negative
Employment Trends Index Positive
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Neutral
Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index Positive
 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Reports generally worse than expectations
Easy Trends Dashboard   (min/max -3 to +3) +1.67 = Very likely moving in a positive direction with a few unconfirmed trends or trends in a bad direction

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.



Economic Indicator: GDPNow   |   NEUTRAL
Easy Intro: None yet   |   Link to Source   |   Latest Date This Info Represents: 2nd Quarter 2015 (i.e., three months ending June 2015)

Quick ‘n Easy

The current forecast for real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2015 is 1.1 percent – well below-average growth by historical standards and slightly better than the 1st quarter’s slight contraction. The Federal Reserve Board of Atlanta combines a whole bunch of public data to mimic what the government does when reporting Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of the economy that is widely accepted. It basically measures the value of all goods and services produced in the country, regardless of industry. In a sense, that’s what economics is all about, the value of things. The rate at which GDP is growing tells us whether our economy is strong or not. Historically, the average has been about 3.3 percent per year. It would be great to see at least that rate of growth.

Economic Indicators - GDPNow from Atlanta Fed - Jun 3 2015

Source: FRBAtlanta.org

Easy Description: GDPNow is a frequently updated estimate of the growth rate of the economy (GDP growth) as opposed to having to wait for quarterly estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for “official” figures.

Latest Readings:

2nd Quarter of 2015: On June 3, GDPNow is positive (+) 1.1 percent annualized growth rate (versus +0.8 percent on May 26)

NOTE: “Annualized growth rate” is how much growth we would see over a full year if economic growth continued at the same pace as it did in the latest quarter being forecast.

Implications: The 1st quarter of 2015 showed slight contraction (-0.7 percent annualized rate), but many feel it was slowed by several temporary factors that should subside over the course of the following quarters. Unfortunately, the early indications of 2nd quarter growth don’t suggest too big a bounce back.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use data on the most recent quarter available. If the latest GDPNow estimate refers to a quarter for which there is already an official BEA reading, then I will go with the BEA reading. I will rate anything between zero and (+) 3.3 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.

continue reading…

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Economic Indicators Roundup (June 1, 2015)

Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative.  For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one’s section how I decide which rating to give it.  At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand.  It’s not scientifically rigorous or anything.

  • Positive – indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
  • Neutral – indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
  • Negative – indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.

(NOTE: For a “Quick ‘n Easy” read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my “Easy Take” summary at the end.  You can review any charts/graphs afterward.  I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I’m trying to making them easy …)


Quick Summary

Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open) Current Rating (change from previous roundup)
GDPNow (GDP Forecast from Atlanta Fed) Neutral
ADS Business Conditions Index Neutral
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Positive
Big Four Economic Indicators Neutral
Daily Consumer Leading Indicators Negative
Employment Trends Index Positive
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Neutral
Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index Positive
 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Reports generally worse than expectations
Easy Trends Dashboard   (min/max -3 to +3) +1.44 = Somewhat likely moving in a positive direction with readings in varying directions and degrees of confidence

NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis.  Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.



Economic Indicator: GDPNow   |   NEUTRAL
Easy Intro: None yet   |   Link to Source   |   Latest Date This Info Represents: 2nd Quarter 2015 (i.e., three months ending June 2015)

Quick ‘n Easy

The current forecast for real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2015 is 0.8 percent – well below-average growth by historical standards and only barely faster than the 1st quarter. The Federal Reserve Board of Atlanta combines a whole bunch of public data to mimic what the government does when reporting Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of the economy that is widely accepted. It basically measures the value of all goods and services produced in the country, regardless of industry. In a sense, that’s what economics is all about, the value of things. The rate at which GDP is growing tells us whether our economy is strong or not. Historically, the average has been about 3.3 percent per year. It would be great to see at least that rate of growth.

Economic Indicators - GDPNow from Atlanta Fed - May 26 2015

Source: FRBAtlanta.org

Easy Description: GDPNow is a frequently updated estimate of the growth rate of the economy (GDP growth) as opposed to having to wait for quarterly estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for “official” figures.

Latest Readings:

2nd Quarter of 2015: On May 26, GDPNow is positive (+) 0.8 percent annualized growth rate (versus +0.7 percent on May 13)

NOTE: “Annualized growth rate” is how much growth we would see over a full year if economic growth continued at the same pace as it did in the latest quarter being forecast.

Implications: The 1st quarter of 2015 showed virtually no growth (+0.2 percent annualized rate), but many feel it was slowed by several temporary factors that should subside over the course of the following quarters. Unfortunately, the early indications of 2nd quarter growth don’t support that notion.

Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use data on the most recent quarter available. If the latest GDPNow estimate refers to a quarter for which there is already an official BEA reading, then I will go with the BEA reading. I will rate anything between zero and (+) 3.3 as “neutral” – anything above or below that will be rated “positive” or “negative” respectively.

continue reading…

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